A contest: Who’s gonna win next?
By Joe Lindsey
Update: Rosters for races this week can be found here:
Paris-Nice: (official) (CyclingNews)
Strade Bianche: no full start list is posted yet, but BMC has posted its start list here
Vuelta Murcia: (official) (CyclingNews)
No sooner did I pen Tuesday’s column about how even super teams have to develop a winning culture – using UCI top-ranked ProTeam Leopard-Trek’s winless streak to start 2011 as my example – than the team opened its account with a victory at the Grand Prix le Samyn.
I jokingly offered up on Twitter to Astana, BMC and Saxo Bank-Sungard, three remaining ProTeams yet to notch even a single win this season, that my services were available for hire.
But we’re going to go one better than that. You’re going to do it.
Starting this week, a number of prestigious races will give those three teams a chance to break into the win column. And since the Boulder Report’s official slogan is All Predictions Guaranteed Wrong, we’re going to get one right.
The contest: Pick which team will win first, and at which race. Post your picks in the comments. First correct answer wins some schwag.
What schwag? I’m glad you asked. Tell them what they’ve won, Don Pardo!
“They’ve won some valuable prizes, including a set of Gore Professional Ride-On derailleur cables and a HydraPak hydration pack. That’s the basics, but there might be a few extra goodies in there too.”
The rules: For purposes of this contest, we’ll keep it simple: UCI-rated races only, and to victories only: a win in a single-day event (e.g., Strade Bianche), stage wins (e.g., Paris-Nice time trial), or overall (e.g., Tour of Murcia overall). No secondary competitions like Best Climber or Points will count.
With that out of the way, let’s handicap a bit of the action:
ProTeams without a victory in 2011: Astana, BMC, Saxo Bank-Sungard, Euskaltel
Vuelta Murcia – March 4-6
Teams: Euskaltel, Saxo Bank-Sungard
Alberto Contador is the big headliner here and could be a solid pick for the overall or the final 12.4km time trial. But the Accountant is still busy dealing with the aftermath of his doping case, and was a slightly off 15th place in the TT at Algarve. Volodomir Gustov or Dani Navarro might be better stage win possibilities. For Euskaltel, Igor Anton Hernandez is a solid pick, and Ruben Perez Moreno was 13th at the recent Clasica Almeria in a sprint finish.
Strade Bianche – March 5
Teams: BMC
Without Sky and Astana, the race is missing the winners of its last two editions. That opens things up considerably. BMC will bring a star-packed team, including Alessandro Ballan – the only rider to notch any podium finish so far for BMC; George Hincapie; and former World Champion Cadel Evans, who won a similar stage of last year’s Giro d’Italia on these same roads.
Paris-Nice – March 6-11
Teams: BMC, Astana, Euskaltel, Saxo Bank-Sungard
Undoubtedly the biggest race of these three, all four teams will be there. They’ll be fighting not just with other ProTeams, but with Pro Continental squads looking to secure wild-card berths in other ASO races (if not the Tour de France, where invitations have already been given out).
For BMC, American phenom Taylor Phinney has been scratched; he’s still recovering from the effects of a crash in training. But Amael Moinard won a stage here last year and the mountains jersey, while Brent Bookwalter had a fantastic season last year and has some decent TT chops.
Euskaltel brings its strongest lineup, with Olympic gold medalist Sammy Sanchez and young prospect Romain Sicard. Sanchez, second in a stage of the Ruta del Sol, is easily the best bet as P-N’s punchy climbs and tactical racing suit his abilities nicely.
Astana is also looking to make a mark on 2011 and fields a very strong team. Standout names are multiple-time stage winner Alexander Vinokourov, who lives in Monaco and knows the final Nice-Nice stage like the home training ground it is; plus off-season acquisition Roman Kreuziger. Talented climber Remy di Gregorio, who’s never quite confirmed on his promise, also makes the team as does Fredrik Kessiakoff, an ex-Garmin rider who showed good form at Algarve.
Finally, Saxo Bank-Sungard offers up 2010 Giro revelation Richie Porte, backed by a solid support cast that includes the non-brothers Sorensen (Nicki and Chris Anker) and Benjamin Noval. Porte will want a good showing, as he wants to confirm his 2010 season and establish himself as a solid option for stage races should Contador lose an appeal of his doping case.
*A fourth major race this week, the Driedaagse de West-Vlaanderen, doesn’t feature any of these losing losers who lose.
So, who’s it gonna be, and where are they gonna do it? Again, you need pick only the team and the race they’ll do it in. Bonus points for picking the rider to do it, but the team is the big one. (Because, be honest – how many of you really thought Dominic Klemme would win before Fabian Cancellara?)
And because the Boulder Report is just like Little League where you can win just by playing, even if no one gets it right I’ll still award the schwag to the wittiest answer.
And … begin!